Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Exiting model portfolio IBB puts...

...I'll take the average of the bid/ask spread for the November 22 275 puts, which is (according to TDA) trading at 22.30. They were entered in the model portfolio at 10.50, which is a gain of 112% in 16 days, which comes out to an annualized gain of ... 2555%!!! If only every trade I did in real life was that good! :)

Happy Investing,

JVS

This is not a trade recommendation or analysis, but a modification to this website's tracking portfolio.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Quick clarification on position sizing

For posterity: When I talk about a "100% position", I will typically be referring to stocks, whereas a 10% position (or thereabouts) will be options; the reasoning is that by nature options are typically much more risky. For instance, if a typical 100% position for me would be purchasing $1000 worth of a stock, then purchasing a 10% position of options would be $100 of options. However, if it's a "100% position" for options, I would be purchasing $1000. So, my 100% ECYT put position is very risky, and could go very poorly; I feel confident in its prospects though, which is why I made the very risky bet of a 100% options position on it.

JVS

This is not a trade analysis, or recommendation, but an explanation of this blog's model portfolio.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Ariad's AP26113 receives breakthrough designation...

Disclosure: I'm long ARIA as a substantial portion of my portfolio.

...which, in my opinion, means little. What was more important was the safety and efficacy demonstrated by AP26113 in the recently reported Phase II trial. If true, 113 should be able to make it swiftly through the approval process if the Phase II data continue to be positive, or perhaps after a limited phase III. People continue to be negative on 113 doing well in competition with the other major ALK inhibitors already approved (like crizotinib); the beauty of 113 is that it seems to have efficacy in various resistant mutants as well, which are a sizeable portion of non-small cell lung carcinomas. However, this is getting way ahead of where we are now; we still need to wait for more data to see if 113 is really effective, and safe. I'm still bullish on ARIA, and considering adding more to both the model portfolio and my real life portfolio.

Happy investing!

JVS


This is not a trade analysis or recommendation, but a comment on recent relevant news.